Preventable COVID-19 cases and deaths by alternative vaccination and non-pharmacological intervention policies in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: This work aimed to estimate the avoidable COVID-19 cases and deaths with the anticipation of vaccination, additional doses, and effective non-pharmacological interventions in Brazil. METHODS: We developed a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered-susceptible model based on epidemiological indicators of morbidity and mortality derived from data obtained from the Health Information System of the Ministry of Health of Brazil. The number of cases and deaths was estimated for different scenarios of vaccination programs and non-pharmacological interventions in the states of Brazil (from March 8, 2020, to June 5, 2022). RESULTS: The model-based estimate showed that 40 days of vaccination anticipation, additional vaccine doses, and a higher level the nonpharmacological interventions would reduce and delay the pandemic peak. The country would have 17,121,749 fewer COVID-19 cases and 391,647 avoidable deaths CONCLUSION: The results suggest that if 80% of the Brazilian population had been vaccinated by May 2021, 59.83% of deaths would have been avoided in Brazil.