Validation of a Five-Year Prognostic Model Using (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine Scintigraphy in Patients with Heart Failure

Background: (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) scintigraphy evaluates the severity and prognosis of patients with heart failure. A prognostic model has been proposed using a multicenter study data of (123)I-MIBG scintigraphy. We evaluated the usefulness of the model using a database. Methods: The study included 208 patients with noncompensated heart failure requiring hospitalization. (123)I-MIBG scintigraphy and echocardiography were performed predischarge and 6 months postdischarge. The 5-year mortality rate was calculated by the model and classified into tertiles. Results: In 208 patients, 56 cardiac deaths occurred within the observation period (median, 4.83 years). In the evaluation of predischarge parameters, the predicted 5-year mortality was 15.5% ± 5.0%, 33.5% ± 3.9%, and 51.2% ± 8.2%, and 11 (16.2%), 18 (27.3%), and 27 (36.5%) cardiac deaths occurred in groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively. At the 6-month postdischarge evaluation, the estimated mortality was 8.2% ± 2.2%, 18.5% ± 4.8%, and 43.0% ± 12.1%, and 6 (9.4%), 21 (29.2%), and 29 (40.3%) cardiac deaths occurred, respectively. The predischarge Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed significant difference between groups 1 and 3 (P value 0.014). Moreover, the 6-month postdischarge evaluation showed significant difference between group 1 and 2, and between groups 1 and 3 (P value 0.016, <0.001, respectively). For groups 1 and 3, the 6-month postdischarge difference was more significant than the predischarge difference (Chi-square 16.7 and 8.1, respectively). Conclusions: The prognostic model using (123)I-MIBG scintigraphy was useful in predicting mortality risk in patients with heart failure. The estimated mortality at 6 months postdischarge was more useful than the predischarge estimation for heart failure hospitalization.