Retrospective analysis of the (18)F-FDG PET/CT cutoff value for metabolic parameters was performed as a prediction model to evaluate risk factors for endometrial cancer

PURPOSE: The study retrospectively analyzed the accuracy and predictive ability of preoperative integrated whole-body (18)F-FDG PET/CT for the assessment of high-risk factors in patients with endometrial carcinoma (EC). MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 205 patients with endometrial cancer who underwent preoperative PET/CT at Shanghai General Hospital from January 2018 to December 2021 were retrospectively evaluated and last follow-up was June 2023. Our study evaluated the ability and optimal cutoff values of three metabolic and volumetric parameters—standardized uptake value (SUV), metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG)—to predict deep myometrial invasion (DMI), endocervical stroma invasion (ESI) and lymph node metastases (LNM) in endometrial cancer. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of PET/CT were used to assess the diagnostic performance for the prediction. RESULTS: Our study demonstrated a significant relationship between SUVmax (11.29, 17.38, 9.47), SUVmean (5.20, 6.12, 4.49), MTV (38.15, 36.28, 33.79 ml), and TLG (199.30, 225.10, 156.40 g) on PET/CT and histologically confirmed DMI, ESI and LNM in endometrial carcinoma (EC), with sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, PPV, and NPV of 100%/100%/100%, 96.53%/98.89%/87.14%, 97.56%/99.02%/91.22%, 92.42%/92.85%/78.31%, and 100%/100%/100%, respectively. Our study showed a risk model based on optimal cutoff values for MTV and TLG of 19.6 ml/126.3 g, 20.54 ml/84.80 g and 24 ml/49.83 g to preoperatively predict DMI, ESI, and LNM, respectively, in endometrial carcinoma. The 4-year OS (HR) for Stage IA, IB, II, III and IV according to 2009 FIGO was 98.00% (0.22), 95.20% (0.04), 83.90% (0.18), 90.50% (0.09) and 60% (0.51). Accordingly, estimated 4-year DFS (HR) for the stage IA-III was 98% (0.02), 95.20% (0.05), 76.90% (0.27) and 76.30% (0.35), all the patients in stage IV occurred recurrence and progression. CONCLUSION: The present study showed patients with MTV > = 19.6 ml of MI and PET- positive LN with MTV cutoff > = 24 ml tended to predict poor OS and PFS in endometrial carcinoma. The cutoff of MTV and TLG in PET/CT assessment could be an independent prognostic factors to predict aggressive forms of EC. GRAPHIC ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13014-023-02382-6.