T wave abnormalities, high body mass index, current smoking and high lipoprotein (a) levels predict the development of major abnormal Q/QS patterns 20 years later. A population-based study

BACKGROUND: Most studies on risk factors for development of coronary heart disease (CHD) have been based on the clinical outcome of CHD. Our aim was to identify factors that could predict the development of ECG markers of CHD, such as abnormal Q/QS patterns, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, in 70-year-old men, irrespective of clinical outcome. METHODS: Predictors for development of different ECG abnormalities were identified in a population-based study using stepwise logistic regression. Anthropometrical and metabolic factors, ECG abnormalities and vital signs from a health survey of men at age 50 were related to ECG abnormalities identified in the same cohort 20 years later. RESULTS: At the age of 70, 9% had developed a major abnormal Q/QS pattern, but 63% of these subjects had not been previously hospitalized due to MI, while 57% with symptomatic MI between age 50 and 70 had no major Q/QS pattern at age 70. T wave abnormalities (Odds ratio 3.11, 95% CI 1.18–8.17), high lipoprotein (a) levels, high body mass index (BMI) and smoking were identified as significant independent predictors for the development of abnormal major Q/QS patterns. T wave abnormalities and high fasting glucose levels were significant independent predictors for the development of ST segment depression without abnormal Q/QS pattern. CONCLUSION: T wave abnormalities on resting ECG should be given special attention and correlated with clinical information. Risk factors for major Q/QS patterns need not be the same as traditional risk factors for clinically recognized CHD. High lipoprotein (a) levels may be a stronger risk factor for silent myocardial infarction (MI) compared to clinically recognized MI.