Cargando…

The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.

The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Cross, E R, Hyams, K C
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: 1996
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1469404/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8841757
_version_ 1782127603276054528
author Cross, E R
Hyams, K C
author_facet Cross, E R
Hyams, K C
author_sort Cross, E R
collection PubMed
description The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 degree C, 3 degrees C, and 5 degrees C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, and August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional stations could become endemic with an increase of 1 degree C; 17 (15%) more with a 3 degrees C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a 5 degrees C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3 degrees C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5 degrees C rise.
format Text
id pubmed-1469404
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 1996
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-14694042006-06-01 The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia. Cross, E R Hyams, K C Environ Health Perspect Research Article The distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in Southwest Asia is thought to be highly dependent on temperature and relative humidity. A discriminant analysis model based on weather data and reported vector surveys was developed to predict the seasonal and geographic distribution of P. papatasi in this region. To simulate global warming, temperature values for 115 weather stations were increased by 1 degree C, 3 degrees C, and 5 degrees C, and the outcome variable coded as unknown in the model. Probability of occurrence values were then predicted for each location with a weather station. Stations with positive probability of occurrence values for May, June, July, and August were considered locations where two or more life cycles of P. papatasi could occur and which could support endemic transmission of leishmaniasis and sandfly fever. Among 115 weather stations, 71 (62%) would be considered endemic with current temperature conditions; 14 (12%) additional stations could become endemic with an increase of 1 degree C; 17 (15%) more with a 3 degrees C increase; and 12 (10%) more (all but one station) with a 5 degrees C increase. In addition to increased geographic distribution, seasonality of disease transmission could be extended throughout 12 months of the year in 7 (6%) locations with at least a 3 degrees C rise in temperature and in 29 (25%) locations with a 5 degrees C rise. 1996-07 /pmc/articles/PMC1469404/ /pubmed/8841757 Text en
spellingShingle Research Article
Cross, E R
Hyams, K C
The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title_full The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title_fullStr The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title_full_unstemmed The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title_short The potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of Phlebotomus papatasi in southwest Asia.
title_sort potential effect of global warming on the geographic and seasonal distribution of phlebotomus papatasi in southwest asia.
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1469404/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/8841757
work_keys_str_mv AT crosser thepotentialeffectofglobalwarmingonthegeographicandseasonaldistributionofphlebotomuspapatasiinsouthwestasia
AT hyamskc thepotentialeffectofglobalwarmingonthegeographicandseasonaldistributionofphlebotomuspapatasiinsouthwestasia
AT crosser potentialeffectofglobalwarmingonthegeographicandseasonaldistributionofphlebotomuspapatasiinsouthwestasia
AT hyamskc potentialeffectofglobalwarmingonthegeographicandseasonaldistributionofphlebotomuspapatasiinsouthwestasia