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Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions
BACKGROUND: The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza in domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the possible evolution of a novel human strain [1]. If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most co...
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Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2006
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526768/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16881729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030361 |
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author | Wu, Joseph T Riley, Steven Fraser, Christophe Leung, Gabriel M |
author_facet | Wu, Joseph T Riley, Steven Fraser, Christophe Leung, Gabriel M |
author_sort | Wu, Joseph T |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza in domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the possible evolution of a novel human strain [1]. If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimate the expected reduction in primary attack rates for different household-based interventions using a mathematical model of influenza transmission within and between households. We show that, for lower transmissibility strains [2,4], the combination of household-based quarantine, isolation of cases outside the household, and targeted prophylactic use of anti-virals will be highly effective and likely feasible across a range of plausible transmission scenarios. For example, for a basic reproductive number (the average number of people infected by a typically infectious individual in an otherwise susceptible population) of 1.8, assuming only 50% compliance, this combination could reduce the infection (symptomatic) attack rate from 74% (49%) to 40% (27%), requiring peak quarantine and isolation levels of 6.2% and 0.8% of the population, respectively, and an overall anti-viral stockpile of 3.9 doses per member of the population. Although contact tracing may be additionally effective, the resources required make it impractical in most scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: National influenza pandemic preparedness plans currently focus on reducing the impact associated with a constant attack rate, rather than on reducing transmission. Our findings suggest that the additional benefits and resource requirements of household-based interventions in reducing average levels of transmission should also be considered, even when expected levels of compliance are only moderate. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-1526768 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2006 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-15267682006-08-08 Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions Wu, Joseph T Riley, Steven Fraser, Christophe Leung, Gabriel M PLoS Med Research Article BACKGROUND: The outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza in domestic poultry and wild birds has caused global concern over the possible evolution of a novel human strain [1]. If such a strain emerges, and is not controlled at source [2,3], a pandemic is likely to result. Health policy in most countries will then be focused on reducing morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We estimate the expected reduction in primary attack rates for different household-based interventions using a mathematical model of influenza transmission within and between households. We show that, for lower transmissibility strains [2,4], the combination of household-based quarantine, isolation of cases outside the household, and targeted prophylactic use of anti-virals will be highly effective and likely feasible across a range of plausible transmission scenarios. For example, for a basic reproductive number (the average number of people infected by a typically infectious individual in an otherwise susceptible population) of 1.8, assuming only 50% compliance, this combination could reduce the infection (symptomatic) attack rate from 74% (49%) to 40% (27%), requiring peak quarantine and isolation levels of 6.2% and 0.8% of the population, respectively, and an overall anti-viral stockpile of 3.9 doses per member of the population. Although contact tracing may be additionally effective, the resources required make it impractical in most scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: National influenza pandemic preparedness plans currently focus on reducing the impact associated with a constant attack rate, rather than on reducing transmission. Our findings suggest that the additional benefits and resource requirements of household-based interventions in reducing average levels of transmission should also be considered, even when expected levels of compliance are only moderate. Public Library of Science 2006-09 2006-08-08 /pmc/articles/PMC1526768/ /pubmed/16881729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030361 Text en © 2006 Wu et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Wu, Joseph T Riley, Steven Fraser, Christophe Leung, Gabriel M Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title | Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title_full | Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title_fullStr | Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title_full_unstemmed | Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title_short | Reducing the Impact of the Next Influenza Pandemic Using Household-Based Public Health Interventions |
title_sort | reducing the impact of the next influenza pandemic using household-based public health interventions |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1526768/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16881729 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.0030361 |
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