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Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures
BACKGROUND: Time series methods are commonly used to detect disease outbreak signatures (e.g., signals due to influenza outbreaks and anthrax attacks) from varying respiratory-related diagnostic or syndromic data sources. Typically this involves two components: (i) Using time series methods to model...
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Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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BioMed Central
2007
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2203979/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17919318 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-7-28 |
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author | Craigmile, Peter F Kim, Namhee Fernandez, Soledad A Bonsu, Bema K |
author_facet | Craigmile, Peter F Kim, Namhee Fernandez, Soledad A Bonsu, Bema K |
author_sort | Craigmile, Peter F |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Time series methods are commonly used to detect disease outbreak signatures (e.g., signals due to influenza outbreaks and anthrax attacks) from varying respiratory-related diagnostic or syndromic data sources. Typically this involves two components: (i) Using time series methods to model the baseline background distribution (the time series process that is assumed to contain no outbreak signatures), (ii) Detecting outbreak signatures using filter-based time series methods. METHODS: We consider time series models for chest radiograph data obtained from Midwest children's emergency departments. These models incorporate available covariate information such as patient visit counts and smoothed ambient temperature series, as well as time series dependencies on daily and weekly seasonal scales. Respiratory-related outbreak signature detection is based on filtering the one-step-ahead prediction errors obtained from the time series models for the respiratory-complaint background. RESULTS: Using simulation experiments based on a stochastic model for an anthrax attack, we illustrate the effect of the choice of filter and the statistical models upon radiograph-attributed outbreak signature detection. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate the importance of using seasonal autoregressive integrated average time series models (SARIMA) with covariates in the modeling of respiratory-related time series data. We find some homogeneity in the time series models for the respiratory-complaint backgrounds across the Midwest emergency departments studied. Our simulations show that the balance between specificity, sensitivity, and timeliness to detect an outbreak signature differs by the emergency department and the choice of filter. The linear and exponential filters provide a good balance. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-2203979 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2007 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-22039792008-01-17 Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures Craigmile, Peter F Kim, Namhee Fernandez, Soledad A Bonsu, Bema K BMC Med Inform Decis Mak Research Article BACKGROUND: Time series methods are commonly used to detect disease outbreak signatures (e.g., signals due to influenza outbreaks and anthrax attacks) from varying respiratory-related diagnostic or syndromic data sources. Typically this involves two components: (i) Using time series methods to model the baseline background distribution (the time series process that is assumed to contain no outbreak signatures), (ii) Detecting outbreak signatures using filter-based time series methods. METHODS: We consider time series models for chest radiograph data obtained from Midwest children's emergency departments. These models incorporate available covariate information such as patient visit counts and smoothed ambient temperature series, as well as time series dependencies on daily and weekly seasonal scales. Respiratory-related outbreak signature detection is based on filtering the one-step-ahead prediction errors obtained from the time series models for the respiratory-complaint background. RESULTS: Using simulation experiments based on a stochastic model for an anthrax attack, we illustrate the effect of the choice of filter and the statistical models upon radiograph-attributed outbreak signature detection. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate the importance of using seasonal autoregressive integrated average time series models (SARIMA) with covariates in the modeling of respiratory-related time series data. We find some homogeneity in the time series models for the respiratory-complaint backgrounds across the Midwest emergency departments studied. Our simulations show that the balance between specificity, sensitivity, and timeliness to detect an outbreak signature differs by the emergency department and the choice of filter. The linear and exponential filters provide a good balance. BioMed Central 2007-10-05 /pmc/articles/PMC2203979/ /pubmed/17919318 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-7-28 Text en Copyright © 2007 Craigmile et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0) ), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Craigmile, Peter F Kim, Namhee Fernandez, Soledad A Bonsu, Bema K Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title | Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title_full | Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title_fullStr | Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title_short | Modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
title_sort | modeling and detection of respiratory-related outbreak signatures |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2203979/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17919318 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1472-6947-7-28 |
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