Mcm2 predicts recurrence hazard in stage Ta/T1 bladder cancer more accurately than CK20, Ki67 and histological grade

Stage Ta/T1 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (Ta/T1 BC) has a marked tendency to recur. Besides histopathology, markers such as CK20 expression and proliferation index (Ki67) have been shown to predict its clinical course. The replication-licensing factor minichromosome maintenance protein 2 (Mcm2) is a marker of proliferative potential shown to be a promising prognostic marker in various malignancies. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of Mcm2 in comparison to stage, grade, CK20 and Ki67. Initial sporadic Ta/T1 BC (n=71) were evaluated for their expression of CK20, Ki67 and Mcm2 by immunohistochemistry and tissue microarray technology. Prognostic power was analysed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression model for tumour recurrence rate. Median follow-up period was 39 months. A total of 35% patients experienced recurrence. While CK20 was not predictive, grade, Ki67 and Mcm2 were significantly related to recurrence rate in univariate Cox regression model. Only grade (HR 2.37; 95% CI 1.24–4.51; P=0.009) and Mcm2 expression with a cutoff ⩾40% (HR 5.81; 95% CI 2.41–14.00; P<0.001) were independent predictors of recurrence rate in multivariate Cox regression analysis. In addition to grade, expression of Mcm2 is an independent predictor of recurrence in Ta/T1 BC.