The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020

We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic count...

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Autores principales: Møller, H, Fairley, L, Coupland, V, Okello, C, Green, M, Forman, D, Møller, B, Bray, F
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2007
Materias:
Epidemiology
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2360166/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17473821
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
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author Møller, H
Fairley, L
Coupland, V
Okello, C
Green, M
Forman, D
Møller, B
Bray, F
author_facet Møller, H
Fairley, L
Coupland, V
Okello, C
Green, M
Forman, D
Møller, B
Bray, F
author_sort Møller, H
collection PubMed
description We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population.
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spelling pubmed-23601662009-09-10 The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020 Møller, H Fairley, L Coupland, V Okello, C Green, M Forman, D Møller, B Bray, F Br J Cancer Epidemiology We estimated the future cancer incidence rates and the future numbers of cancer cases in England up to 2020 using cancer registration data for 1974–2003, and the official population projections from ONS up to 2023. Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort model as developed for the Nordic countries. We predict that for all cancers combined there will be relatively little change in age-standardised incidence rates in 2020. The number of new cancer cases per year in England is, however, predicted to increase by 33%, from 224 000 in 2001 to 299 000 cases in 2020. This increase is mainly due to the anticipated effects of population growth and ageing; cancer patients in 2020 will be older than today's cancer population. Nature Publishing Group 2007-05-07 2007-05-01 /pmc/articles/PMC2360166/ /pubmed/17473821 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746 Text en Copyright © 2007 Cancer Research UK https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material.If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Møller, H
Fairley, L
Coupland, V
Okello, C
Green, M
Forman, D
Møller, B
Bray, F
The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title_full The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title_fullStr The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title_full_unstemmed The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title_short The future burden of cancer in England: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
title_sort future burden of cancer in england: incidence and numbers of new patients in 2020
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2360166/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17473821
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6603746
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