Pre-treatment nomogram for biochemical control after neoadjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy for clinically localised prostate cancer

Phase III studies have demonstrated the clinical benefit of adding neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation to radical radiotherapy for clinically localised prostate cancer. We have developed a nomogram to describe the probability of PSA control for patients treated in this way. Five hundred and seventeen men with clinically localised prostate cancer were treated with 3–6 months of neo-adjuvant androgen deprivation and radical radiotherapy (64 Gy in 32#) between 1988 and 1998. Median presenting PSA was 20 ng ml(−1), and 56% of patients had T3/4 disease. Multivariate analysis of pre-treatment factors was performed, and a nomogram developed to describe PSA-failure-free survival probability. At a median follow-up of 44 months, 233 men had developed PSA failure. Presenting PSA, histological grade and clinical T stage were all highly predictive of PSA failure on multivariate analysis. The nomogram score for an individual patient is given by the summation of PSA (<10=0, 10–19=16, 20–49=44, ⩾50=100), grade (Gleason 2–4=0, 5–7=44, 8–10=81) and T stage (T1/2=0, T3/4=35). For a nomogram score of 0, 50, 100 and 150 points the 2 year PSA control rate was 93, 87, 75 and 54%, and the 5 year PSA control rate was 82, 67, 44 and 18%. These results are comparable to those using surgery or higher doses of radical radiotherapy alone. The nomogram illustrates the results of multivariate analysis in a visually-striking way, and facilitates comparisons with other treatment methods. British Journal of Cancer (2002) 86, 686–691. DOI: 10.1038/sj/bjc/6600160 www.bjcancer.com © 2002 Cancer Research UK