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The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men

Recent analyses based on UK data indicate that people who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. We investigated whether similar absolute risks of lung cancer in men are found in other European countries with different smoking patterns and at dif...

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Autores principales: Crispo, A, Brennan, P, Jöckel, K-H, Schaffrath-Rosario, A, Wichmann, H-E, Nyberg, F, Simonato, L, Merletti, F, Forastiere, F, Boffetta, P, Darby, S
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group 2004
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2409903/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15292933
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6602078
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author Crispo, A
Brennan, P
Jöckel, K-H
Schaffrath-Rosario, A
Wichmann, H-E
Nyberg, F
Simonato, L
Merletti, F
Forastiere, F
Boffetta, P
Darby, S
author_facet Crispo, A
Brennan, P
Jöckel, K-H
Schaffrath-Rosario, A
Wichmann, H-E
Nyberg, F
Simonato, L
Merletti, F
Forastiere, F
Boffetta, P
Darby, S
author_sort Crispo, A
collection PubMed
description Recent analyses based on UK data indicate that people who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. We investigated whether similar absolute risks of lung cancer in men are found in other European countries with different smoking patterns and at different stages of their lung cancer epidemic. Using data for men from a multicentre case–control study of lung cancer in the UK, Germany, Italy and Sweden, and including 6523 lung cancer cases and 9468 controls, we combined odds ratio estimates with estimates of national lung cancer incidence rates to calculate the cumulative risk of lung cancer among men by age 75. Lung cancer cumulative risks by age 75 among continuing smokers were similar for the UK, Germany and Italy at 15.7, 14.3 and 13.8% respectively, whereas the cumulative risk among Swedish male smokers was 6.6%. The proportion of the risk of lung cancer avoided by quitting smoking before the age of 40 was comparable between the four countries, at 80% in Italy and 91% in the UK, Germany and Sweden. Similarly, the proportion of the excess risk avoided by quitting before the age of 50 ranged from 57% in Italy to 69% in Germany. Our results support the important conclusion that for long-term smokers, giving up smoking in middle age avoids most of the subsequent risk of lung cancer, and that lung cancer mortality in European men over the next three decades will be determined by the extent to which current smokers can successfully quit smoking.
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spelling pubmed-24099032009-09-10 The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men Crispo, A Brennan, P Jöckel, K-H Schaffrath-Rosario, A Wichmann, H-E Nyberg, F Simonato, L Merletti, F Forastiere, F Boffetta, P Darby, S Br J Cancer Epidemiology Recent analyses based on UK data indicate that people who stop smoking, even well into middle age, avoid most of their subsequent risk of lung cancer. We investigated whether similar absolute risks of lung cancer in men are found in other European countries with different smoking patterns and at different stages of their lung cancer epidemic. Using data for men from a multicentre case–control study of lung cancer in the UK, Germany, Italy and Sweden, and including 6523 lung cancer cases and 9468 controls, we combined odds ratio estimates with estimates of national lung cancer incidence rates to calculate the cumulative risk of lung cancer among men by age 75. Lung cancer cumulative risks by age 75 among continuing smokers were similar for the UK, Germany and Italy at 15.7, 14.3 and 13.8% respectively, whereas the cumulative risk among Swedish male smokers was 6.6%. The proportion of the risk of lung cancer avoided by quitting smoking before the age of 40 was comparable between the four countries, at 80% in Italy and 91% in the UK, Germany and Sweden. Similarly, the proportion of the excess risk avoided by quitting before the age of 50 ranged from 57% in Italy to 69% in Germany. Our results support the important conclusion that for long-term smokers, giving up smoking in middle age avoids most of the subsequent risk of lung cancer, and that lung cancer mortality in European men over the next three decades will be determined by the extent to which current smokers can successfully quit smoking. Nature Publishing Group 2004-10-04 2004-08-03 /pmc/articles/PMC2409903/ /pubmed/15292933 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6602078 Text en Copyright © 2004 Cancer Research UK https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material.If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Crispo, A
Brennan, P
Jöckel, K-H
Schaffrath-Rosario, A
Wichmann, H-E
Nyberg, F
Simonato, L
Merletti, F
Forastiere, F
Boffetta, P
Darby, S
The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title_full The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title_fullStr The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title_full_unstemmed The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title_short The cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in European men
title_sort cumulative risk of lung cancer among current, ex- and never-smokers in european men
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2409903/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15292933
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sj.bjc.6602078
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