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Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number

Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic repr...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Gubbins, Simon, Carpenter, Simon, Baylis, Matthew, Wood, James L.N, Mellor, Philip S
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2007
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2497440/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17638649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
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author Gubbins, Simon
Carpenter, Simon
Baylis, Matthew
Wood, James L.N
Mellor, Philip S
author_facet Gubbins, Simon
Carpenter, Simon
Baylis, Matthew
Wood, James L.N
Mellor, Philip S
author_sort Gubbins, Simon
collection PubMed
description Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R(0), provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R(0) for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R(0) were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R(0). The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate.
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spelling pubmed-24974402008-12-29 Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number Gubbins, Simon Carpenter, Simon Baylis, Matthew Wood, James L.N Mellor, Philip S J R Soc Interface Research Article Since 1998 bluetongue virus (BTV), which causes bluetongue, a non-contagious, insect-borne infectious disease of ruminants, has expanded northwards in Europe in an unprecedented series of incursions, suggesting that there is a risk to the large and valuable British livestock industry. The basic reproduction number, R(0), provides a powerful tool with which to assess the level of risk posed by a disease. In this paper, we compute R(0) for BTV in a population comprising two host species, cattle and sheep. Estimates for each parameter which influences R(0) were obtained from the published literature, using those applicable to the UK situation wherever possible. Moreover, explicit temperature dependence was included for those parameters for which it had been quantified. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses based on Latin hypercube sampling and partial rank correlation coefficients identified temperature, the probability of transmission from host to vector and the vector to host ratio as being most important in determining the magnitude of R(0). The importance of temperature reflects the fact that it influences many processes involved in the transmission of BTV and, in particular, the biting rate, the extrinsic incubation period and the vector mortality rate. The Royal Society 2007-07-17 2008-03-06 /pmc/articles/PMC2497440/ /pubmed/17638649 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1110 Text en Copyright © 2007 The Royal Society http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Gubbins, Simon
Carpenter, Simon
Baylis, Matthew
Wood, James L.N
Mellor, Philip S
Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title_full Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title_fullStr Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title_short Assessing the risk of bluetongue to UK livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
title_sort assessing the risk of bluetongue to uk livestock: uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of a temperature-dependent model for the basic reproduction number
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2497440/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17638649
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2007.1110
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