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A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic
BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obta...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2008
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2602849/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19104659 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004005 |
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author | Milne, George J. Kelso, Joel K. Kelly, Heath A. Huband, Simon T. McVernon, Jodie |
author_facet | Milne, George J. Kelso, Joel K. Kelly, Heath A. Huband, Simon T. McVernon, Jodie |
author_sort | Milne, George J. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0) in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0) values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-2602849 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2008 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-26028492008-12-23 A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic Milne, George J. Kelso, Joel K. Kelly, Heath A. Huband, Simon T. McVernon, Jodie PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0) in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0) values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined. Public Library of Science 2008-12-23 /pmc/articles/PMC2602849/ /pubmed/19104659 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004005 Text en Milne et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Milne, George J. Kelso, Joel K. Kelly, Heath A. Huband, Simon T. McVernon, Jodie A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title | A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title_full | A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title_fullStr | A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title_short | A Small Community Model for the Transmission of Infectious Diseases: Comparison of School Closure as an Intervention in Individual-Based Models of an Influenza Pandemic |
title_sort | small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2602849/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19104659 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0004005 |
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