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Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens

Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative...

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Autores principales: Bouma, Annemarie, Claassen, Ivo, Natih, Ketut, Klinkenberg, Don, Donnelly, Christl A., Koch, Guus, van Boven, Michiel
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2009
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19180190
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281
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author Bouma, Annemarie
Claassen, Ivo
Natih, Ketut
Klinkenberg, Don
Donnelly, Christl A.
Koch, Guus
van Boven, Michiel
author_facet Bouma, Annemarie
Claassen, Ivo
Natih, Ketut
Klinkenberg, Don
Donnelly, Christl A.
Koch, Guus
van Boven, Michiel
author_sort Bouma, Annemarie
collection PubMed
description Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic.
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spelling pubmed-26279272009-01-30 Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens Bouma, Annemarie Claassen, Ivo Natih, Ketut Klinkenberg, Don Donnelly, Christl A. Koch, Guus van Boven, Michiel PLoS Pathog Research Article Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic. Public Library of Science 2009-01-30 /pmc/articles/PMC2627927/ /pubmed/19180190 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281 Text en Bouma et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bouma, Annemarie
Claassen, Ivo
Natih, Ketut
Klinkenberg, Don
Donnelly, Christl A.
Koch, Guus
van Boven, Michiel
Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title_full Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title_fullStr Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title_short Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
title_sort estimation of transmission parameters of h5n1 avian influenza virus in chickens
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627927/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19180190
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281
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