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Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens
Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2009
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627927/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19180190 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281 |
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author | Bouma, Annemarie Claassen, Ivo Natih, Ketut Klinkenberg, Don Donnelly, Christl A. Koch, Guus van Boven, Michiel |
author_facet | Bouma, Annemarie Claassen, Ivo Natih, Ketut Klinkenberg, Don Donnelly, Christl A. Koch, Guus van Boven, Michiel |
author_sort | Bouma, Annemarie |
collection | PubMed |
description | Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-2627927 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2009 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-26279272009-01-30 Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens Bouma, Annemarie Claassen, Ivo Natih, Ketut Klinkenberg, Don Donnelly, Christl A. Koch, Guus van Boven, Michiel PLoS Pathog Research Article Despite considerable research efforts, little is yet known about key epidemiological parameters of H5N1 highly pathogenic influenza viruses in their avian hosts. Here we show how these parameters can be estimated using a limited number of birds in experimental transmission studies. Our quantitative estimates, based on Bayesian methods of inference, reveal that (i) the period of latency of H5N1 influenza virus in unvaccinated chickens is short (mean: 0.24 days; 95% credible interval: 0.099–0.48 days); (ii) the infectious period of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens is approximately 2 days (mean: 2.1 days; 95%CI: 1.8–2.3 days); (iii) the reproduction number of H5N1 virus in unvaccinated chickens need not be high (mean: 1.6; 95%CI: 0.90–2.5), although the virus is expected to spread rapidly because it has a short generation interval in unvaccinated chickens (mean: 1.3 days; 95%CI: 1.0–1.5 days); and (iv) vaccination with genetically and antigenically distant H5N2 vaccines can effectively halt transmission. Simulations based on the estimated parameters indicate that herd immunity may be obtained if at least 80% of chickens in a flock are vaccinated. We discuss the implications for the control of H5N1 avian influenza virus in areas where it is endemic. Public Library of Science 2009-01-30 /pmc/articles/PMC2627927/ /pubmed/19180190 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281 Text en Bouma et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Bouma, Annemarie Claassen, Ivo Natih, Ketut Klinkenberg, Don Donnelly, Christl A. Koch, Guus van Boven, Michiel Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title | Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title_full | Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title_fullStr | Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title_short | Estimation of Transmission Parameters of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens |
title_sort | estimation of transmission parameters of h5n1 avian influenza virus in chickens |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2627927/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19180190 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1000281 |
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