Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes Using Alternate Anthropometric Measures in a Multi-Ethnic Cohort: The Insulin Resistance Atherosclerosis Study

OBJECTIVE: To compare different anthropometric measures in terms of their ability to predict type 2 diabetes and to determine whether predictive ability was modified by ethnicity. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Anthropometry was measured at baseline for 1,073 non-Hispanic white (nHW), African American (AA), and Hispanic (HA) subjects, of whom 146 developed type 2 diabetes after 5.2 years. Logistic regression models were used with areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AROCs) comparing the prediction of models. RESULTS: Waist-to-height ratio (AROC 0.678) was the most predictive measure, followed by BMI (AROC 0.674). Results were similar in nHW and HA subjects, although in AA subjects, central adiposity measures appeared to best predict type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Measures of central and overall adiposity predicted type 2 diabetes to a similar degree, except in AA subjects, for whom results suggested that central measures were more predictive.