Weight change and incident metabolic syndrome in Iranian men and women; a 3 year follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Although the association of weight gain and developing metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been reported in the Western and Asian populations, data on the gender-stratified effects of weight change (including weight loss) on incident MetS and its components in the Middle East Caucasians is still scarce. METHODS: A total of 1431 men and 2036 women aged ≥ 20 years with BMI > 18.5 kg/m(2 )were followed over 3 years. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the relative risk (RR) of MetS and its components (the Adult Treatment Panel III definition) associated with gender-stratified quintiles of percent weight change. Subjects with MetS at baseline were excluded for analyzing the RR of MetS. RESULTS: There was 20.4% (95% CI, 19.6–21.2) age-adjusted incident MetS (18.4% male vs. 23.1% women). In men, mild weight gain (WG) predicted high waist circumference (WC) and high triglyceride; moderate WG predicted MetS (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.3), high WC and high blood pressure (BP); large WG predicted MetS (RR 3.2, 95% CI 1.8–5.7) and its components, except for high fasting plasma glucose. In women, mild WG predicted MetS (RR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.3), high WC and high BP; moderate WG predicted Mets (RR 4.6, 95% CI 2.7–8.0), high WC and high triglyceride; large WG predicted MetS (RR 6.6, 95% CI 3.8–11.3) and its components except for low HDL-cholesterol. Mild weight loss had protective effect on high WC in both genders and MetS in men (RR 0.5, 95% CI 0.26–0.97, P = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Weight change showed different effects on MetS in men and women. In women, mild WG predicted MetS; however, mild weight loss was protective against MetS in men and high WC in both genders.