Frailty modeling of bimodal age-incidence curves of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in low-risk populations

The incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) varies widely according to age at diagnosis, geographic location, and ethnic background. On a global scale, NPC incidence is common among specific populations primarily living in southern and eastern Asia and northern Africa, but in most areas, including almost all western countries, it remains a relatively uncommon malignancy. Specific to these low-risk populations is a general observation of possible bimodality in the observed age-incidence curves. We have developed a multiplicative frailty model that allows for the demonstrated points of inflection at ages 15–24 and 65–74. The bimodal frailty model has 2 independent compound Poisson-distributed frailties and gives a significant improvement in fit over a unimodal frailty model. Applying the model to population-based cancer registry data worldwide, 2 biologically relevant estimates are derived, namely the proportion of susceptible individuals and the number of genetic and epigenetic events required for the tumor to develop. The results are critically compared and discussed in the context of existing knowledge of the epidemiology and pathogenesis of NPC.