Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection

We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of [Formula: see text] with estimates incorporating additional...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Roberts, M. G., Heesterbeek, J. A. P.
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer-Verlag 2007
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2782110/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17684743
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-007-0112-8
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author Roberts, M. G.
Heesterbeek, J. A. P.
author_facet Roberts, M. G.
Heesterbeek, J. A. P.
author_sort Roberts, M. G.
collection PubMed
description We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of [Formula: see text] with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of [Formula: see text] , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise.
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spelling pubmed-27821102009-11-30 Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection Roberts, M. G. Heesterbeek, J. A. P. J Math Biol Article We investigate the merit of deriving an estimate of the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] early in an outbreak of an (emerging) infection from estimates of the incidence and generation interval only. We compare such estimates of [Formula: see text] with estimates incorporating additional model assumptions, and determine the circumstances under which the different estimates are consistent. We show that one has to be careful when using observed exponential growth rates to derive an estimate of [Formula: see text] , and we quantify the discrepancies that arise. Springer-Verlag 2007-08-08 2007 /pmc/articles/PMC2782110/ /pubmed/17684743 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-007-0112-8 Text en © Springer-Verlag 2007 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Roberts, M. G.
Heesterbeek, J. A. P.
Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title_full Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title_fullStr Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title_full_unstemmed Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title_short Model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
title_sort model-consistent estimation of the basic reproduction number from the incidence of an emerging infection
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2782110/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17684743
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-007-0112-8
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