Minimal Contribution of Fasting Hyperglycemia to the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Subjects With Normal 2-h Plasma Glucose

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relative contribution of increased fasting and postload plasma glucose concentrations to the incidence of type 2 diabetes in subjects with a normal 2-h plasma glucose concentration. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 3,450 subjects with 2-h plasma glucose concentration <140 mg/dl at baseline were followed up in the San Antonio Heart Study (SAHS) and the Botnia Study for 7–8 years. The incidence of type 2 diabetes at follow-up was related to the fasting, 1-h, and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations. RESULTS: In subjects with 2-h plasma glucose <140 mg/dl, the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with increasing fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 1-h and 2-h plasma glucose concentrations. In a multivariate logistic analysis, after adjustment for all diabetes risk factors, the FPG concentration was a strong predictor of type 2 diabetes in both the SAHS and the Botnia Study (P < 0.0001). However, when the 1-h plasma glucose, but not 2-h plasma glucose, concentration was added to the model, FPG concentration was no longer a significant predictor of type 2 diabetes in both studies (NS). When subjects were matched for the level of 1-h plasma glucose concentration, the incidence of type 2 diabetes markedly increased with the increase in 1-h plasma glucose, but the increase in FPG was not associated with a significant increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: An increase in postload glycemia in the normal range is associated with an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes. After controlling for 1-h plasma glucose concentration, the increase in FPG concentration is not associated with an increase in the incidence of type 2 diabetes.