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Household structure and infectious disease transmission
One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to c...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2009
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2829934/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18840319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808001416 |
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author | HOUSE, T. KEELING, M. J. |
author_facet | HOUSE, T. KEELING, M. J. |
author_sort | HOUSE, T. |
collection | PubMed |
description | One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-2829934 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2009 |
publisher | Cambridge University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-28299342010-03-02 Household structure and infectious disease transmission HOUSE, T. KEELING, M. J. Epidemiol Infect Original Papers One of the central tenets of modern infectious disease epidemiology is that an understanding of heterogeneities, both in host demography and transmission, allows control to be efficiently optimized. Due to the strong interactions present, households are one of the most important heterogeneities to consider, both in terms of predicting epidemic severity and as a target for intervention. We consider these effects in the context of pandemic influenza in Great Britain, and find that there is significant local (ward-level) variation in the basic reproductive ratio, with some regions predicted to suffer 50% faster growth rate of infection than the mean. Childhood vaccination was shown to be highly effective at controlling an epidemic, generally outperforming random vaccination and substantially reducing the variation between regions; only nine out of over 10 000 wards did not obey this rule and these can be identified as demographically atypical regions. Since these benefits of childhood vaccination are a product of correlations between household size and number of dependent children in the household, our results are qualitatively robust for a variety of disease scenarios. Cambridge University Press 2009-05 2008-10-08 /pmc/articles/PMC2829934/ /pubmed/18840319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808001416 Text en Copyright © 2008 Cambridge University Press http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/ The online version of this article is published within an Open Access environment subject to the conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/2.5/>) The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use |
spellingShingle | Original Papers HOUSE, T. KEELING, M. J. Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title | Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title_full | Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title_fullStr | Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title_full_unstemmed | Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title_short | Household structure and infectious disease transmission |
title_sort | household structure and infectious disease transmission |
topic | Original Papers |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2829934/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18840319 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0950268808001416 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT houset householdstructureandinfectiousdiseasetransmission AT keelingmj householdstructureandinfectiousdiseasetransmission |