Cargando…
Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks
BACKGROUND: College and university students experience substantial morbidity from influenza and influenza-like illness, and they can benefit substantially from vaccination. Public health authorities encourage vaccination not only before the influenza season but also into and even throughout the infl...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2010
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2832017/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20209058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009548 |
_version_ | 1782178313310044160 |
---|---|
author | Nichol, Kristin L. Tummers, Kate Hoyer-Leitzel, Alanna Marsh, Jennifer Moynihan, Matt McKelvey, Steven |
author_facet | Nichol, Kristin L. Tummers, Kate Hoyer-Leitzel, Alanna Marsh, Jennifer Moynihan, Matt McKelvey, Steven |
author_sort | Nichol, Kristin L. |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: College and university students experience substantial morbidity from influenza and influenza-like illness, and they can benefit substantially from vaccination. Public health authorities encourage vaccination not only before the influenza season but also into and even throughout the influenza season. We conducted the present study to assess the impact of various vaccination strategies including delayed (i.e., in-season) vaccination on influenza outbreaks on a college campus. METHODS/FINDINGS: We used a Susceptible → Infected → Recovered (SIR) framework for our mathematical models to simulate influenza epidemics in a closed, college campus. We included both students and faculty/staff in the model and derived values for the model parameters from the published literature. The values for key model parameters were varied to assess the impact on the outbreak of various pre-season and delayed vaccination rates; one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the sensitivity of the model outputs to changes in selected parameter values. In the base case, with a pre-season vaccination rate of 20%, no delayed vaccination, and 1 student index case, the total attack rate (total percent infected, TAR) was 45%. With higher pre-season vaccination rates TARs were lower. Even if vaccinations were given 30 days after outbreak onset, TARs were still lower than the TAR of 69% in the absence of vaccination. Varying the proportions of vaccinations given pre-season versus delayed until after the onset of the outbreak gave intermediate TAR values. Base case outputs were sensitive to changes in infectious contact rates and infectious periods and a holiday/break schedule. CONCLUSION: Delayed vaccination and holidays/breaks can be important adjunctive measures to complement traditional pre-season influenza vaccination for controlling and preventing influenza in a closed college campus. |
format | Text |
id | pubmed-2832017 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2010 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-28320172010-03-06 Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks Nichol, Kristin L. Tummers, Kate Hoyer-Leitzel, Alanna Marsh, Jennifer Moynihan, Matt McKelvey, Steven PLoS One Research Article BACKGROUND: College and university students experience substantial morbidity from influenza and influenza-like illness, and they can benefit substantially from vaccination. Public health authorities encourage vaccination not only before the influenza season but also into and even throughout the influenza season. We conducted the present study to assess the impact of various vaccination strategies including delayed (i.e., in-season) vaccination on influenza outbreaks on a college campus. METHODS/FINDINGS: We used a Susceptible → Infected → Recovered (SIR) framework for our mathematical models to simulate influenza epidemics in a closed, college campus. We included both students and faculty/staff in the model and derived values for the model parameters from the published literature. The values for key model parameters were varied to assess the impact on the outbreak of various pre-season and delayed vaccination rates; one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the sensitivity of the model outputs to changes in selected parameter values. In the base case, with a pre-season vaccination rate of 20%, no delayed vaccination, and 1 student index case, the total attack rate (total percent infected, TAR) was 45%. With higher pre-season vaccination rates TARs were lower. Even if vaccinations were given 30 days after outbreak onset, TARs were still lower than the TAR of 69% in the absence of vaccination. Varying the proportions of vaccinations given pre-season versus delayed until after the onset of the outbreak gave intermediate TAR values. Base case outputs were sensitive to changes in infectious contact rates and infectious periods and a holiday/break schedule. CONCLUSION: Delayed vaccination and holidays/breaks can be important adjunctive measures to complement traditional pre-season influenza vaccination for controlling and preventing influenza in a closed college campus. Public Library of Science 2010-03-04 /pmc/articles/PMC2832017/ /pubmed/20209058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009548 Text en This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Public Domain declaration, which stipulates that, once placed in the public domain, this work may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Nichol, Kristin L. Tummers, Kate Hoyer-Leitzel, Alanna Marsh, Jennifer Moynihan, Matt McKelvey, Steven Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title | Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title_full | Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title_fullStr | Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title_full_unstemmed | Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title_short | Modeling Seasonal Influenza Outbreak in a Closed College Campus: Impact of Pre-Season Vaccination, In-Season Vaccination and Holidays/Breaks |
title_sort | modeling seasonal influenza outbreak in a closed college campus: impact of pre-season vaccination, in-season vaccination and holidays/breaks |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2832017/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20209058 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0009548 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT nicholkristinl modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks AT tummerskate modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks AT hoyerleitzelalanna modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks AT marshjennifer modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks AT moynihanmatt modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks AT mckelveysteven modelingseasonalinfluenzaoutbreakinaclosedcollegecampusimpactofpreseasonvaccinationinseasonvaccinationandholidaysbreaks |