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The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden

The short-term effects of high temperatures are a serious concern in the context of climate change. In areas that today have mild climates the research activity has been rather limited, despite the fact that differences in temperature susceptibility will play a fundamental role in understanding the...

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Autores principales: Rocklöv, Joacim, Forsberg, Bertil
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 2010
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2905568/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20644691
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7062607
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author Rocklöv, Joacim
Forsberg, Bertil
author_facet Rocklöv, Joacim
Forsberg, Bertil
author_sort Rocklöv, Joacim
collection PubMed
description The short-term effects of high temperatures are a serious concern in the context of climate change. In areas that today have mild climates the research activity has been rather limited, despite the fact that differences in temperature susceptibility will play a fundamental role in understanding the exposure, acclimatization, adaptation and health risks of a changing climate. In addition, many studies employ biometeorological indexes without careful investigation of the regional heterogeneity in the impact of relative humidity. We aimed to investigate the effects of summer temperature and relative humidity and regional differences in three regions of Sweden allowing for heterogeneity of the effect over the scale of summer temperature. To do so, we collected mortality data for ages 65+ from Stockholm, Göteborg and Skåne from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute for the years 1998 through 2005. In Stockholm and Skåne on average 22 deaths per day occurred, while in Göteborg the mean frequency of daily deaths was 10. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate relative risks of high ambient temperatures on daily mortality using smooth functions to control for confounders, and estimated non-linear effects of exposure while allowing for auto-regressive correlation of observations within summers. The effect of temperature on mortality was found distributed over the same or following day, with statistically significant cumulative combined relative risk of about 5.1% (CI = 0.3, 10.1) per °C above the 90th percentile of summer temperature. The effect of high relative humidity was statistically significant in only one of the regions, as was the effect of relative humidity (above 80th percentile) and temperature (above 90th percentile). In the southernmost region studied there appeared to be a significant increase in mortality with decreasing low summer temperatures that was not apparent in the two more northerly situated regions. The effects of warm temperatures on the elderly population in Sweden are rather strong and consistent across different regions after adjustment for mortality displacement. The impact of relative humidity appears to be different in regions, and may be a more important predictor of mortality in some areas.
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spelling pubmed-29055682010-07-19 The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden Rocklöv, Joacim Forsberg, Bertil Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The short-term effects of high temperatures are a serious concern in the context of climate change. In areas that today have mild climates the research activity has been rather limited, despite the fact that differences in temperature susceptibility will play a fundamental role in understanding the exposure, acclimatization, adaptation and health risks of a changing climate. In addition, many studies employ biometeorological indexes without careful investigation of the regional heterogeneity in the impact of relative humidity. We aimed to investigate the effects of summer temperature and relative humidity and regional differences in three regions of Sweden allowing for heterogeneity of the effect over the scale of summer temperature. To do so, we collected mortality data for ages 65+ from Stockholm, Göteborg and Skåne from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare and the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute for the years 1998 through 2005. In Stockholm and Skåne on average 22 deaths per day occurred, while in Göteborg the mean frequency of daily deaths was 10. We fitted time-series regression models to estimate relative risks of high ambient temperatures on daily mortality using smooth functions to control for confounders, and estimated non-linear effects of exposure while allowing for auto-regressive correlation of observations within summers. The effect of temperature on mortality was found distributed over the same or following day, with statistically significant cumulative combined relative risk of about 5.1% (CI = 0.3, 10.1) per °C above the 90th percentile of summer temperature. The effect of high relative humidity was statistically significant in only one of the regions, as was the effect of relative humidity (above 80th percentile) and temperature (above 90th percentile). In the southernmost region studied there appeared to be a significant increase in mortality with decreasing low summer temperatures that was not apparent in the two more northerly situated regions. The effects of warm temperatures on the elderly population in Sweden are rather strong and consistent across different regions after adjustment for mortality displacement. The impact of relative humidity appears to be different in regions, and may be a more important predictor of mortality in some areas. Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 2010-06 2010-06-14 /pmc/articles/PMC2905568/ /pubmed/20644691 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7062607 Text en © 2007 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 This article is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Rocklöv, Joacim
Forsberg, Bertil
The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title_full The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title_fullStr The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title_full_unstemmed The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title_short The Effect of High Ambient Temperature on the Elderly Population in Three Regions of Sweden
title_sort effect of high ambient temperature on the elderly population in three regions of sweden
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2905568/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20644691
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph7062607
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