The Association of Hemoglobin A1c With Incident Heart Failure Among People Without Diabetes: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

OBJECTIVE: This study sought to investigate an association of HbA1c (A1C) with incident heart failure among individuals without diabetes and compare it to fasting glucose. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied 11,057 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study without heart failure or diabetes at baseline and estimated hazard ratios of incident heart failure by categories of A1C (<5.0, 5.0–5.4 [reference], 5.5–5.9, and 6.0–6.4%) and fasting glucose (<90, 90–99 [reference], 100–109, and 110–125 mg/dl) using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 841 cases of incident heart failure hospitalization or deaths (International Classification of Disease, 9th/10th Revision, 428/I50) occurred during a median follow-up of 14.1 years (incidence rate 5.7 per 1,000 person-years). After the adjustment for covariates including fasting glucose, the hazard ratio of incident heart failure was higher in individuals with A1C 6.0–6.4% (1.40 [95% CI, 1.09–1.79]) and 5.5–6.0% (1.16 [0.98–1.37]) as compared with the reference group. Similar results were observed when adjusting for insulin level or limiting to heart failure cases without preceding coronary events or developed diabetes during follow-up. In contrast, elevated fasting glucose was not associated with heart failure after adjustment for covariates and A1C. Similar findings were observed when the top quartile (A1C, 5.7–6.4%, and fasting glucose, 108–125 mg/dl) was compared with the lowest quartile (<5.2% and <95 mg/dl, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Elevated A1C (≥5.5–6.0%) was associated with incident heart failure in a middle-aged population without diabetes, suggesting that chronic hyperglycemia prior to the development of diabetes contributes to development of heart failure.