Postchallenge Glucose, A1C, and Fasting Glucose as Predictors of Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A 10-year prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE: A1C has been proposed as a new indicator for high risk of type 2 diabetes. The long-term predictive power and comparability of elevated A1C with the currently used high-risk indicators remain unclear. We assessed A1C, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and impaired fasting glucose (IFG) as predictors of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD) at 10 years. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective population-based study of 593 inhabitants from northern Finland, born in 1935, was conducted between 1996 and 2008. An oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was conducted at baseline and follow-up, and A1C was determined at baseline. Those with a history of diabetes were excluded from the study. Elevated A1C was defined as 5.7–6.4%. Incident type 2 diabetes was confirmed by two OGTTs. Cardiovascular outcome was measured as incident CVD or CVD mortality. Multivariate log-binomial regression models were used to predict diabetes, CVD, and CVD mortality at 10 years. Receiver operating characteristic curves compared predictive values of A1C, IGT, and IFG. RESULTS: Incidence of diabetes during the follow-up was 17.1%. Two of three of the cases of newly diagnosed diabetes were predicted by a raise in ≥1 of the markers. Elevated A1C, IGT, or IFG preceded diabetes in 32.8, 40.6, and 21.9%, respectively. CVD was predicted by an intermediate and diabetic range of 2-h glucose but only by diabetic A1C levels in women. CONCLUSIONS: A1C predicted 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes at a range of A1C 5.7–6.4% but CVD only in women at A1C ≥6.5%.