Ongoing Movement of the Hermit Warbler X Townsend's Warbler Hybrid Zone

BACKGROUND: Movements of hybrid zones – areas of overlap and interbreeding between species – are difficult to document empirically. This is true because moving hybrid zones are expected to be rare, and because movement may proceed too slowly to be measured directly. Townsend's warblers (Dendroica townsendi) hybridize with hermit warblers (D. occidentalis) where their ranges overlap in Washington and Oregon. Previous morphological, behavioral, and genetic studies of this hybrid zone suggest that it has been steadily moving into the geographical range of hermit warblers, with the more aggressive Townsend's warblers replacing hermit warblers along ∼2000 km of the Pacific coast of Canada and Alaska. Ongoing movement of the zone, however, has yet to be empirically demonstrated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We compared recently sampled hybrid zone specimens to those collected 10–20 years earlier, to test directly the long-standing hypothesis of hybrid zone movement between these species. Newly sampled specimens were more Townsend's-like than historical specimens, consistent with ongoing movement of the zone into the geographical range of hermit warblers. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: While movement of a hybrid zone may be explained by several possible mechanisms, in this case a wealth of existing evidence suggests that movement is being driven by the competitive displacement of hermit warblers by Townsend's warblers. That no ecological differences have been found between these species, and that replacement of hermit warblers by Townsend's warblers is proceeding downward in latitude and elevation – opposite the directions of range shifts predicted by recent climate change – further support that this movement is not being driven by alternative environmental factors. If the mechanism of competitive displacement is correct, whether this process will ultimately lead to the extinction of hermit warblers will depend on the continued maintenance of the dramatic competitive asymmetry observed between the species.