A Likelihood Ratio Test of Speciation with Gene Flow Using Genomic Sequence Data

Genomic sequence data may be used to test hypotheses about the process of species formation. In this paper, I implement a likelihood ratio test of variable species divergence times over the genome, which may be considered a test of the null model of allopatric speciation without gene flow against the alternative model of parapatric speciation with gene flow. Two models are implemented in the likelihood framework, which accommodate coalescent events in the ancestral populations in a phylogeny of three species. One model assumes a constant species divergence time over the genome, whereas another allows it to vary. Computer simulation shows that the test has acceptable false positive rate but to achieve reasonable power, hundreds or even thousands of genomic loci may be necessary. The test is applied to genomic data from the human, chimpanzee, and gorilla.