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Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic

After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about...

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Autores principales: Bajardi, Paolo, Poletto, Chiara, Ramasco, Jose J., Tizzoni, Michele, Colizza, Vittoria, Vespignani, Alessandro
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3031602/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304943
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591
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author Bajardi, Paolo
Poletto, Chiara
Ramasco, Jose J.
Tizzoni, Michele
Colizza, Vittoria
Vespignani, Alessandro
author_facet Bajardi, Paolo
Poletto, Chiara
Ramasco, Jose J.
Tizzoni, Michele
Colizza, Vittoria
Vespignani, Alessandro
author_sort Bajardi, Paolo
collection PubMed
description After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level.
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spelling pubmed-30316022011-02-08 Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Bajardi, Paolo Poletto, Chiara Ramasco, Jose J. Tizzoni, Michele Colizza, Vittoria Vespignani, Alessandro PLoS One Research Article After the emergence of the H1N1 influenza in 2009, some countries responded with travel-related controls during the early stage of the outbreak in an attempt to contain or slow down its international spread. These controls along with self-imposed travel limitations contributed to a decline of about 40% in international air traffic to/from Mexico following the international alert. However, no containment was achieved by such restrictions and the virus was able to reach pandemic proportions in a short time. When gauging the value and efficacy of mobility and travel restrictions it is crucial to rely on epidemic models that integrate the wide range of features characterizing human mobility and the many options available to public health organizations for responding to a pandemic. Here we present a comprehensive computational and theoretical study of the role of travel restrictions in halting and delaying pandemics by using a model that explicitly integrates air travel and short-range mobility data with high-resolution demographic data across the world and that is validated by the accumulation of data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. We explore alternative scenarios for the 2009 H1N1 pandemic by assessing the potential impact of mobility restrictions that vary with respect to their magnitude and their position in the pandemic timeline. We provide a quantitative discussion of the delay obtained by different mobility restrictions and the likelihood of containing outbreaks of infectious diseases at their source, confirming the limited value and feasibility of international travel restrictions. These results are rationalized in the theoretical framework characterizing the invasion dynamics of the epidemics at the metapopulation level. Public Library of Science 2011-01-31 /pmc/articles/PMC3031602/ /pubmed/21304943 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591 Text en Bajardi et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Bajardi, Paolo
Poletto, Chiara
Ramasco, Jose J.
Tizzoni, Michele
Colizza, Vittoria
Vespignani, Alessandro
Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title_full Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title_fullStr Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title_short Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
title_sort human mobility networks, travel restrictions, and the global spread of 2009 h1n1 pandemic
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3031602/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21304943
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0016591
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