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Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation

Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversi...

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Autores principales: Baguelin, Marc, Hoschler, Katja, Stanford, Elaine, Waight, Pauline, Hardelid, Pia, Andrews, Nick, Miller, Elizabeth
Formato: Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3044152/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21373639
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074
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author Baguelin, Marc
Hoschler, Katja
Stanford, Elaine
Waight, Pauline
Hardelid, Pia
Andrews, Nick
Miller, Elizabeth
author_facet Baguelin, Marc
Hoschler, Katja
Stanford, Elaine
Waight, Pauline
Hardelid, Pia
Andrews, Nick
Miller, Elizabeth
author_sort Baguelin, Marc
collection PubMed
description Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5–14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1–4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period.
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spelling pubmed-30441522011-03-03 Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation Baguelin, Marc Hoschler, Katja Stanford, Elaine Waight, Pauline Hardelid, Pia Andrews, Nick Miller, Elizabeth PLoS One Research Article Estimating the age-specific incidence of an emerging pathogen is essential for understanding its severity and transmission dynamics. This paper describes a statistical method that uses likelihoods to estimate incidence from sequential serological data. The method requires information on seroconversion intervals and allows integration of information on the temporal distribution of cases from clinical surveillance. Among a family of candidate incidences, a likelihood function is derived by reconstructing the change in seroprevalence from seroconversion following infection and comparing it with the observed sequence of positivity among the samples. This method is applied to derive the cumulative and weekly incidence of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza in England during the second wave using sera taken between September 2009 and February 2010 in four age groups (1–4, 5–14, 15–24, 25–44 years). The highest cumulative incidence was in 5–14 year olds (59%, 95% credible interval (CI): 52%, 68%) followed by 1–4 year olds (49%, 95% CI: 38%, 61%), rates 20 and 40 times higher respectively than estimated from clinical surveillance. The method provides a more accurate and continuous measure of incidence than achieved by comparing prevalence in samples grouped by time period. Public Library of Science 2011-02-23 /pmc/articles/PMC3044152/ /pubmed/21373639 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074 Text en Baguelin et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Baguelin, Marc
Hoschler, Katja
Stanford, Elaine
Waight, Pauline
Hardelid, Pia
Andrews, Nick
Miller, Elizabeth
Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title_full Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title_fullStr Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title_full_unstemmed Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title_short Age-Specific Incidence of A/H1N1 2009 Influenza Infection in England from Sequential Antibody Prevalence Data Using Likelihood-Based Estimation
title_sort age-specific incidence of a/h1n1 2009 influenza infection in england from sequential antibody prevalence data using likelihood-based estimation
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3044152/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21373639
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0017074
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