Antihypertensive medication versus health promotion for improving metabolic syndrome in preventing cardiovascular events: a success rate-oriented simulation study

BACKGROUND: In practice, it is difficult to compare the effectiveness of traditional antihypertensive treatment with that of health promotion in reducing incidence rate of cardiovascular disease (IR(CVD), events/year). This simulation study compared the effectiveness of two approaches to reducing IR(CVD )in a sample population: a traditional approach, in which high-risk patients are treated with conventional antihypertensive medications, and a population-based approach, in which subjects participate in a health promotion program. METHODS: We constructed a simulation model for a sample population of middle-aged Japanese men whose systolic blood pressure (SBP) levels are normally distributed (130 ± 20 mm Hg). The principal assumption was that IR(CVD )increases exponentially according to SBP. The population IR(CVD )was calculated as the product of the distribution of SBP multiplied by IR(CVD )at each SBP. The cumulative IR(CVD )was calculated by the definite integral from the lowest to the highest SBP of IR(CVD )at each SBP level. The success rates were calculated according to SBP and metabolic risk profiles in the two approaches, respectively. RESULTS: The reduction in IR(CVD )was twice as large for antihypertensive medications as it was for health promotion in several situations. For example, if adherence to antihypertensive treatment occurred at a realistic level, the decrease in IR(CVD )was estimated at 9.99 × 10(-4). In contrast, even if the health program was promoted optimistically, the decrease in IR(CVD )was estimated at 4.69 × 10(-4). CONCLUSIONS: The success rate-oriented simulation suggests that prescribing antihypertensive medications is superior to promoting the health promotion program in reducing IR(CVD )in virtual middle-aged Japanese men.