Genetic predisposition to obesity leads to increased risk of type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple loci robustly associated with BMI and risk of obesity. However, information on their associations with type 2 diabetes is limited. Such information could help increase our understanding of the link between obesity and type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of 12 obesity susceptibility loci, individually and in combination, with risk of type 2 diabetes in the population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk cohort. METHODS: We genotyped 12 SNPs, identified by GWA studies of BMI, in 20,428 individuals (aged 39–79 years at baseline) with an average follow-up of 12.9 years, during which 729 individuals developed type 2 diabetes. A genetic predisposition score was calculated by adding the BMI-increasing alleles across the 12 SNPs. Associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes were examined by logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of the 12 SNPs, eight showed a trend with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, consistent with their BMI-increasing effects. Each additional BMI-increasing allele in the genetic predisposition score was associated with a 4% increased odds of developing type 2 diabetes (OR 1.041, 95% CI 1.005–1.078; p = 0.02). Adjustment for BMI completely abolished the association with incident type 2 diabetes (OR 1.003, 95% CI 0.967–1.039; p = 0.89). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The genetic predisposition to obesity leads to increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes, which is completely mediated by its obesity-predisposing effect. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00125-011-2044-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.