Are the Same Clinical Risk Factors Relevant for Incident Diabetes Defined by Treatment, Fasting Plasma Glucose, and HbA(1c)?

OBJECTIVE: To compare incidences and risk factors for diabetes using seven definitions, with combinations of pharmacological treatment, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, and HbA(1c) ≥6.5%. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Participants aged 30–65 years from the Data from an Epidemiological Study on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome (DESIR) cohort were followed for 9 years. RESULTS: More men had incident diabetes as defined by FPG ≥7.0 mmol/L and/or treatment than by HbA(1c) ≥6.5% and/or treatment: 7.5% (140/1,867) and 5.3% (99/1,874), respectively (P < 0.009); for women incidences were similar: 3.2% (63/1,958) and 3.4% (66/1,954). Known risk factors predicted diabetes for almost all definitions. Among those with incident diabetes by FPG alone versus HbA(1c) alone, there were more men (78 vs. 35%), case patients were 8 years younger, and fewer were alcohol abstainers (12 vs. 35%) (all P < 0.005). A diabetes risk score discriminated well between those with and without incident diabetes for all definitions. CONCLUSIONS: In men, FPG definitions yielded more incident cases of diabetes than HbA(1c) definitions, in contrast with women. An FPG-derived risk score remained relevant for HbA(1c)-defined diabetes.