Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza at Lake Constance (Europe) During the Outbreak of Winter 2005–2006

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAI) H5N1 poses a serious threat to domestic animals. Despite the large number of studies on influenza A virus in waterbirds, little is still known about the transmission dynamics, including prevalence, behavior, and spread of these viruses in the wild waterbird population. From January to April 2006, the HPAI H5N1 virus was confirmed in 82 dead wild waterbirds at the shores of Lake Constance. In this study, we present simple mathematical models to examine this outbreak and to investigate the transmission dynamics of HPAI in wild waterbirds. The population dynamics model of wintering birds was best represented by a sinusoidal function. This model was considered the most adequate to represent the susceptible compartment of the SIR model. The three transmission models predict a basic reproduction ratio (R (0)) with value of approximately 1.6, indicating a small epidemic, which ended with the migration of susceptible wild waterbirds at the end of the winter. With this study, we quantify for the first time the transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus at Lake Constance during the outbreak of winter 2005–2006. It is a step toward the improvement of the knowledge of transmission of the virus among wild waterbirds.