Influence of relative humidity in Vibrio cholerae infection: A time series model

BACKGROUND & OBJECTIVES : Spread of cholera in West Bengal is known to be related to its ecosystem which favours Vibrio cholerae. Incidence of cholera has not been correlated with temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, which may act as favourable factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the relational impact of climate changes on cholera. METHODS : Monthly V. cholerae infection data for of the past 13 years (1996-2008), average relative humidity (RH), temperature and rainfall in Kolkata were considered for the time series analysis of Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model to investigate relational impact of climatic association of V. cholerae infection and General Linear Model (GLM) for point estimation. RESULTS : The SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1) model revealed that monthly average RH was consistently linear related to V. cholerae infection during monsoon season as well as temperature and rainfall were non-stationary, AR(1), SMA(1) and SI(1) (P<0.001) were highly significant with seasonal difference. The GLM has identified that consistent (<10%) range of RH (86.78 ± 4.13, CV=5.0, P <0.001) with moderate to highest (>7 cm) rainfall (10.1 ± 5.1, CV=50.1, P <0.001) and wide (>5-10°C) range of temperature (29.00 ± 1.64, CV=5.6, P <0.001) collectively acted as an ideal climatic condition for V. cholerae infection. Increase of RH to 21 per cent influenced an unusual V. cholerae infection in December 2008 compared to previous years. INTERPRETATION & CONCLUSIONS : V. cholerae infection was associated higher RH (>80%) with 29°C temperature with intermittent average (10 cm) rainfall. This model also identified periodicity and seasonal patterns of cholera in Kolkata. Heavy rainfall indirectly influenced the V. cholerae infection, whereas no correlation was found with high temperature.