Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening

BACKGROUND: We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone. METHODS: We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N=31 and N=18, respectively). RESULTS: Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2%), personalised screening of men age 45–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47–79: 10-year absolute risk ⩾2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35–79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases. CONCLUSION: Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening.