Objectively Measured Physical Activity and the Subsequent Risk of Incident Dysglycemia: The Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab)

OBJECTIVE: To investigate pedometer-measured physical activity (PA) in 2000 and change in PA over 5 years with subsequent risk of dysglycemia by 2005. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: This prospective cohort study in Tasmania, Australia, analyzed 458 adults with normal glucose tolerance and a mean (SD) age of 49.7 (12.1) years in 2000. Variables assessed in 2000 and 2005 included PA, by pedometer and questionnaire, nutrient intake, and other lifestyle factors. Incident dysglycemia was defined as the development of impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance revealed by oral glucose tolerance testing in 2005, without type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: Incident dysglycemia developed in 26 participants during the 5-year period. Higher daily steps in 2000 were independently associated with a lower 5-year risk of incident dysglycemia (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.87 [95% CI 0.77–0.97] per 1,000-step increment). Higher daily steps in 2005, after controlling for baseline steps in 2000 (thus reflecting change in steps over 5 years), were not associated with incident dysglycemia (AOR 1.02 [0.92–1.14]). Higher daily steps in 2000 were also associated with lower fasting blood glucose, but not 2-h plasma glucose by 2005. Further adjustment for BMI or waist circumference did not remove these associations. CONCLUSIONS: Among community-dwelling adults, a higher rate of daily steps is associated with a reduced risk of incident dysglycemia. This effect appears to be not fully mediated through reduced adiposity.