A seven-gene prognostic model for platinum-treated ovarian carcinomas

BACKGROUND: Prognosis of ovarian carcinoma is poor, heterogeneous, and not accurately predicted by histoclinical features. We analysed gene expression profiles of ovarian carcinomas to identify a multigene expression model associated with survival after platinum-based therapy. METHODS: Data from 401 ovarian carcinoma samples were analysed. The learning set included 35 cases profiled using whole-genome DNA chips. The validation set included 366 cases from five independent public data sets. RESULTS: Whole-genome unsupervised analysis could not distinguish poor from good prognosis samples. By supervised analysis, we built a seven-gene optimal prognostic model (OPM) out of 94 genes identified as associated with progression-free survival. Using the OPM, we could classify patients in two groups with different overall survival (OS) not only in the learning set, but also in the validation set. Five-year OS was 57 and 27% for the predicted ‘Favourable’ and ‘Unfavourable’ classes, respectively. In multivariate analysis, the OPM outperformed the individual current prognostic factors, both in the learning and the validation sets, and added independent prognostic information. CONCLUSION: We defined a seven-gene model associated with outcome in 401 ovarian carcinomas. Prospective studies are warranted to confirm its prognostic value, and explore its potential ability for better tailoring systemic therapies in advanced-stage tumours.