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Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest

BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 v...

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Autores principales: Shim, Eunha, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Galvani, Alison P
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3152777/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21356133
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S4
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author Shim, Eunha
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Galvani, Alison P
author_facet Shim, Eunha
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Galvani, Alison P
author_sort Shim, Eunha
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 vaccines be given to individuals under age 25, as these individuals are more likely to spread influenza than older adults. However, due to significant delay in vaccine delivery for the H1N1 influenza pandemic, a large fraction of population was exposed to the H1N1 virus and thereby obtained immunity prior to the wide availability of vaccines. This exposure affects the spread of the disease and needs to be considered when prioritizing vaccine distribution. METHODS: To determine optimal H1N1 vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest versus population interest, we constructed a game theoretical age-structured model of influenza transmission and considered the impact of delayed vaccination. RESULTS: Our results indicate that if individuals decide to vaccinate according to self-interest, the resulting optimal vaccination strategy would prioritize adults of age 25 to 49 followed by either preschool-age children before the pandemic peak or older adults (age 50-64) at the pandemic peak. In contrast, the vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population as a whole would prioritize individuals of ages 5 to 64 to curb a growing pandemic regardless of the timing of the vaccination program. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that for a delayed vaccine distribution, the priorities that are optimal at a population level do not align with those that are optimal according to individual self-interest. Moreover, the discordance between the optimal vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest and those based on population interest is even more pronounced when vaccine availability is delayed. To determine optimal vaccine allocation for pandemic influenza, public health agencies need to consider both the changes in infection risks among age groups and expected patterns of adherence.
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spelling pubmed-31527772011-08-10 Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest Shim, Eunha Meyers, Lauren Ancel Galvani, Alison P BMC Public Health Research BACKGROUND: Influenza vaccination is vital for reducing H1N1 infection-mediated morbidity and mortality. To reduce transmission and achieve herd immunity during the initial 2009-2010 pandemic season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended that initial priority for H1N1 vaccines be given to individuals under age 25, as these individuals are more likely to spread influenza than older adults. However, due to significant delay in vaccine delivery for the H1N1 influenza pandemic, a large fraction of population was exposed to the H1N1 virus and thereby obtained immunity prior to the wide availability of vaccines. This exposure affects the spread of the disease and needs to be considered when prioritizing vaccine distribution. METHODS: To determine optimal H1N1 vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest versus population interest, we constructed a game theoretical age-structured model of influenza transmission and considered the impact of delayed vaccination. RESULTS: Our results indicate that if individuals decide to vaccinate according to self-interest, the resulting optimal vaccination strategy would prioritize adults of age 25 to 49 followed by either preschool-age children before the pandemic peak or older adults (age 50-64) at the pandemic peak. In contrast, the vaccine allocation strategy that is optimal for the population as a whole would prioritize individuals of ages 5 to 64 to curb a growing pandemic regardless of the timing of the vaccination program. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that for a delayed vaccine distribution, the priorities that are optimal at a population level do not align with those that are optimal according to individual self-interest. Moreover, the discordance between the optimal vaccine distributions based on individual self-interest and those based on population interest is even more pronounced when vaccine availability is delayed. To determine optimal vaccine allocation for pandemic influenza, public health agencies need to consider both the changes in infection risks among age groups and expected patterns of adherence. BioMed Central 2011-02-25 /pmc/articles/PMC3152777/ /pubmed/21356133 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S4 Text en Copyright ©2011 Shim et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research
Shim, Eunha
Meyers, Lauren Ancel
Galvani, Alison P
Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title_full Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title_fullStr Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title_full_unstemmed Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title_short Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
title_sort optimal h1n1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3152777/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21356133
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S4
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