Development of Autoantibodies in the TrialNet Natural History Study

OBJECTIVE: Understanding the relationship between age and islet autoantibody (Ab) seroconversion can establish the optimal screening interval(s) to assess risk for type 1 diabetes, identify subjects who can participate in prevention trials, and determine associated costs. This study assessed the rates of seroconversion to glutamic acid decarboxylase positive (GAD65(+)), insulin positive (mIAA(+)), and insulinoma-associated protein 2 positive (ICA512(+)) in a large cohort of relatives of type 1 diabetes probands undergoing Ab rescreening in the TrialNet Natural History Study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Of 32,845 children aged <18 years screened for Abs, 1,287 (3.9%) were GAD65(+), 778 (2.4%) were mIAA(+), 677 (2.1%) were ICA512(+), and 31,038 were Ab-negative. Ab-negative children were offered annual rescreening up to 18 years of age. Cox regression was used to estimate the risk for GAD65, mIAA, and ICA512 seroconversion. RESULTS: There were 205 children who seroconverted to GAD65(+), 155 who seroconverted to mIAA(+), and 53 who seroconverted to ICA512(+) over 5.8 years of follow-up. The risk of mIAA (hazard ratio 0.89 [95% CI 0.85–0.92]) and GAD65 (0.96 [0.93–0.99]) seroconversion significantly decreased with increasing age (i.e., for each 1-year increase in age, the risk of seroconversion decreased by 11% [P < 0.0001] for mIAA and 4% [P = 0.04] for GAD65) across all ages. The cumulative Ab seroconversion was 2% for those <10 years of age versus 0.7% for those ≥10 years of age. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of development of islet Abs declines with increasing age in type 1 diabetes relatives. These data support annual screening for children <10 years of age and one additional screening in adolescence.