Predicting the development of stress urinary incontinence 3 years after hysterectomy

INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to develop a prediction rule to predict the individual risk to develop stress urinary incontinence (SUI) after hysterectomy. METHODS: Prospective observational study with 3-year follow-up among women who underwent abdominal or vaginal hysterectomy for benign conditions, excluding vaginal prolapse, and who did not report SUI before surgery (n = 183). The presence of SUI was assessed using a validated questionnaire. RESULTS: Significant prognostic factors for de novo SUI were BMI (OR 1.1 per kg/m(2), 95% CI 1.0–1.2), younger age at time of hysterectomy (OR 0.9 per year, 95% CI 0.8–1.0) and vaginal hysterectomy (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.0–5.2). Using these variables, we developed the following rule to predict the risk of developing SUI: 32 + BMI − age + (7.5 × route of surgery). CONCLUSIONS: We defined a prediction rule that can be used to counsel patients about their individual risk on developing SUI following hysterectomy.