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Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza

The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few...

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Autores principales: Li, Xinhai, Tian, Huidong, Lai, Dejian, Zhang, Zhibin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 2011
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166731/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21909295
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8083134
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author Li, Xinhai
Tian, Huidong
Lai, Dejian
Zhang, Zhibin
author_facet Li, Xinhai
Tian, Huidong
Lai, Dejian
Zhang, Zhibin
author_sort Li, Xinhai
collection PubMed
description The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account.
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spelling pubmed-31667312011-09-09 Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza Li, Xinhai Tian, Huidong Lai, Dejian Zhang, Zhibin Int J Environ Res Public Health Article The gravity model is often used in predicting the spread of influenza. We use the data of influenza A (H1N1) to check the model’s performance and validation, in order to determine the scope of its application. In this article, we proposed to model the pattern of global spread of the virus via a few important socio-economic indicators. We applied the epidemic gravity model for modelling the virus spread globally through the estimation of parameters of a generalized linear model. We compiled the daily confirmed cases of influenza A (H1N1) in each country as reported to the WHO and each state in the USA, and established the model to describe the relationship between the confirmed cases and socio-economic factors such as population size, per capita gross domestic production (GDP), and the distance between the countries/states and the country where the first confirmed case was reported (i.e., Mexico). The covariates we selected for the model were all statistically significantly associated with the global spread of influenza A (H1N1). However, within the USA, the distance and GDP were not significantly associated with the number of confirmed cases. The combination of the gravity model and generalized linear model provided a quick assessment of pandemic spread globally. The gravity model is valid if the spread period is long enough for estimating the model parameters. Meanwhile, the distance between donor and recipient communities has a good gradient. Besides, the spread should be at the early stage if a single source is taking into account. Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) 2011-08 2011-07-25 /pmc/articles/PMC3166731/ /pubmed/21909295 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8083134 Text en © 2011 by the authors; licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0 This article is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Li, Xinhai
Tian, Huidong
Lai, Dejian
Zhang, Zhibin
Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title_full Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title_fullStr Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title_full_unstemmed Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title_short Validation of the Gravity Model in Predicting the Global Spread of Influenza
title_sort validation of the gravity model in predicting the global spread of influenza
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3166731/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21909295
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph8083134
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AT zhangzhibin validationofthegravitymodelinpredictingtheglobalspreadofinfluenza