Early Maternal Serum β-human Chorionic Gonadotropin Measurements After ICSI in the Prediction of Long-term Pregnancy Outcomes: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND: Initial low maternal serum β-human chorionic gonadotropin (β-hCG) is a good predictor of early pregnancy demise. Our objective was to determine its predictive value in determining the long-term outcome in ICSI pregnancies. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was designed at the Saudi Center for Assisted Reproduction. Two hundred and sixty-one women with ICSI pregnancies were followed up from initial β-hCG level determination till the end of pregnancy. Accuracy of early β-hCG in predicting the occurrence of a live-birth, ongoing pregnancy, late miscarriage, ectopic pregnancy and early miscarriage following ICSI was measured. RESULTS: β-hCG levels were significantly different in pregnancies that reached the stage of an ongoing pregnancy and live-birth as compared to early pregnancy loss. The ROC curves demonstrated a high sensitivity for identifying patients with ectopic pregnancies and early miscarriage (100% and 93.33% respectively). The remaining results ranged from a sensitivity of 69% to 79% and specificity of 62% to 75%. CONCLUSIONS: In ICSI pregnancies, a single early β-hCG may help to identify pregnancies that will reach full-term and delivery. KEYWORDS: ICSI; Human chorionic gonadotropin; Outcome; Pregnancy