Platelet count/bipolar spleen diameter ratio for the prediction of esophageal varices: The special Egyptian situation: Noninvasive prediction of esophageal varices

BACKGROUND: Esophageal variceal hemorrhage is a devastating complication of portal hypertension that occurs in approximately one-third of cirrhotic patients. OBJECTIVES: We assessed the value of the platelet count/ bipolar spleen diameter ratio as a noninvasive parameter for the prediction of esophageal varices (EVs) in Egyptian cirrhotic patients. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Laboratory and ultrasonographic and imaging variables were prospectively evaluated in 175 patients with liver cirrhosis. All patients underwent upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Patients with active gastrointestinal bleeding at the time of admission were excluded. RESULTS: The platelet count/ bipolar spleen diameter ratio in patients with EVs was significantly lower than in patients without EVs. In an analysis of the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs), we calculated an optimal cutoff value of 939.7 for this ratio, which gave 100% sensitivity and negative predictive values, 86.3% specificity, a 95.6% positive predictive value, and an area under the ROC curve of 0.94 ± 0.02, reflecting its overall diagnostic accuracy. These findings were extended to a subset analysis of compensated cirrhotic patients. CONCLUSIONS: The platelet count/ bipolar spleen diameter ratio has excellent accuracy in the noninvasive assessment of EVs in patients with compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis. It is easy to calculate and can lower the financial and sanitary burdens of endoscopy units, especially in developing countries.