Postoperative atrial fibrillation predicts long-term survival after aortic-valve surgery but not after mitral-valve surgery: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) has been reported to be associated with reduced long-term survival after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting surgery. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of POAF on long-term survival after valvular surgery. METHODS: The authors retrospectively analysed the preoperative and operative data of 2986 consecutive patients with no preoperative history of atrial fibrillation undergoing first valvular surgery (aortic-valve replacement (AVR), mitral valve replacement or mitral valve repair (MVR/MVRp) with or without coronary artery bypass grafting surgery) in their institution between 1995 and 2008 (median follow-up 5.31 years, range 0.1–15.0). The authors investigated the impact of POAF on survival using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: Patients with POAF were older, and were more likely to have hypertension or renal failure when compared with patients without POAF. The 12-year survival in patients with POAF was 45.7±2.8% versus 61.4±2.1% in patients without POAF (p<0.001). On a multivariable analysis, when adjusting for age and other potential confounding factors, POAF tended to be associated with lower long-term survival (HR for all-cause death (HR)=1.17, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.38, p=0.051). The authors also analysed this association separately in patients with AVR and those with MVR/MVRp. In the multivariable analysis, POAF was a significant predictor of higher long-term mortality in patients with AVR (HR=1.22, CI 1.02 to 1.45, p=0.03) but not in patients with MVR/MVRp (HR=0.87, CI 0.58 to 1.29, p=0.48). CONCLUSIONS: POAF is significantly associated with long-term mortality following AVR but not after MVR/MVRp. The underlying factors involved in the pathogenesis of POAF after MVR/MVRp may partially account for the lack of association between POAF and survival in these patients.