Evaluation of accuracy of Euroscore risk model in prediction of perioperative mortality after coronary bypass graft surgery in Isfahan(*)

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of Euroscore (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) in predicting perioperative mortality after cardiac surgery in Iranian patient population. METHODS: Data on 1362 patients undergoing coronary bypass graft surgery (CABG) from 2007 to 2009 were collected. Calibration was assessed by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit. Area under the curve (AUC) was used to assess score validity. Odds ratios were measured to evaluate the predictive value of each risk factor on mortality rate. RESULTS: The overall perioperative in hospital mortality was 3.6% whereas the Euroscore predicted a mortality of 3.96%. Euroscore model fitted well in the validation databases. The mean AUC was 66%. Mean length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay was 2.5 ± 2.5 days. Among risk factors, only left ventricular dysfunction, age and neurologic dysfunction were found to be related to mortality rate. CONCLUSIONS: Euroscore did not have acceptable discriminatory ability in perioperative in hospital mortality in Iranian patients. It seems that development of a local mortality risk scores corresponding to our patients epidemiologic characteristics may improve prediction of outcome.