Assessment of intervention outcome in the absence of baseline data: ‘reconstruction’ of condom use time trends using retrospective analysis of survey data

BACKGROUND: Avahan, the India AIDS Initiative, is a large-scale targeted intervention. Data on condom use prior to Avahan are unavailable. The authors used a novel method of analysing cross-sectional survey data to ‘reconstruct’ condom use rates in presurvey years, and to assess the relationship between Avahan and time trends in condom use among female sex workers (FSWs). METHODS: Among FSWs reporting consistent condom use (CCU) with clients in surveys from 21 districts in southern India (n=7358), data on length of time using condoms, and length of time selling sex, were converted into number of FSWs using condoms (numerator) and selling sex (denominator) by year, to give yearly rates of CCU from 2001 to year of survey. Linear regression with generalised estimating equations was used to assess time trends and to compare the rate of increase in condom use before and after Avahan initiation in 2003. RESULTS: In all 21 districts, the rate of increase in CCU from 2001 to time of the surveys was highly significant. Overall CCU increased from 27% (22%) with occasional (regular) clients in 2001, to 76% (68%) in 2006, respectively. The yearly rate of increase in CCU was significantly greater after (slope 2003–2006: 12.7% (12.0%) per year for occasional (regular) clients) than prior to Avahan (slope 2001–2003: 5.1% (5.3%) per year for occasional (regular) clients) implementation (p<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate a positive relationship between implementation of the Avahan programme and rates of CCU increase among FSW. This method of analysis may be useful in other contexts where preintervention data are lacking.