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A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks envi...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Wang, Rong-Hua, Jin, Zhen, Liu, Quan-Xing, van de Koppel, Johan, Alonso, David
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3281819/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22363397
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0028873