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Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza
Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in soci...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2012
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3297563/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22412366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002425 |
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author | Eames, Ken T. D. Tilston, Natasha L. Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Edmunds, W. John |
author_facet | Eames, Ken T. D. Tilston, Natasha L. Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Edmunds, W. John |
author_sort | Eames, Ken T. D. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in social contact patterns over time, finding that school children make 40% fewer contacts during holiday periods than during term time. We use these dynamically varying contact patterns to parameterise an age-structured model of influenza spread, capturing well the observed patterns of incidence; the changing contact patterns resulted in a fall of approximately 35% in the reproduction number of influenza during the holidays. This work illustrates the importance of including changing mixing patterns in epidemic models. We conclude that changes in contact patterns explain changes in disease incidence, and that the timing of school terms drove the 2009 H1N1v epidemic in the UK. Changes in social mixing patterns can be usefully measured through simple internet-based surveys. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-3297563 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2012 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-32975632012-03-12 Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza Eames, Ken T. D. Tilston, Natasha L. Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Edmunds, W. John PLoS Comput Biol Research Article Patterns of social mixing are key determinants of epidemic spread. Here we present the results of an internet-based social contact survey completed by a cohort of participants over 9,000 times between July 2009 and March 2010, during the 2009 H1N1v influenza epidemic. We quantify the changes in social contact patterns over time, finding that school children make 40% fewer contacts during holiday periods than during term time. We use these dynamically varying contact patterns to parameterise an age-structured model of influenza spread, capturing well the observed patterns of incidence; the changing contact patterns resulted in a fall of approximately 35% in the reproduction number of influenza during the holidays. This work illustrates the importance of including changing mixing patterns in epidemic models. We conclude that changes in contact patterns explain changes in disease incidence, and that the timing of school terms drove the 2009 H1N1v epidemic in the UK. Changes in social mixing patterns can be usefully measured through simple internet-based surveys. Public Library of Science 2012-03-08 /pmc/articles/PMC3297563/ /pubmed/22412366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002425 Text en Eames et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Eames, Ken T. D. Tilston, Natasha L. Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Edmunds, W. John Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title | Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title_full | Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title_fullStr | Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title_full_unstemmed | Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title_short | Measured Dynamic Social Contact Patterns Explain the Spread of H1N1v Influenza |
title_sort | measured dynamic social contact patterns explain the spread of h1n1v influenza |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3297563/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22412366 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002425 |
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