Prospective population studies of incident heart failure without data on baseline left ventricular ejection fraction

INTRODUCTION: Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is a predictor of incident heart failure (HF). However, baseline LVEF is often unavailable in population studies of HF. METERIAL AND METHODS: Of the 5324 Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) participants free of baseline HF, 143 (3%) had LVEF < 45% and 1091 (21%) developed HF during 13 years of follow-up. Using public-use copies of the CHS data, we compared two predictor models of incident HF, with and without adjustment for baseline LVEF. RESULTS: Baseline impaired LVEF was a strong independent predictor of incident HF (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.78; P < 0.001) but had no impact on the direction, magnitude or significance of independent associations of the other predictors of incident HF such as age, sex, race, coronary artery disease, hypertension and diabetes. CONCLUSION: Baseline LVEF is an important predictor for incident HF but is not essential in population studies of risk factors for incident HF.