Malaria Attributable to the HIV-1 Epidemic, Sub-Saharan Africa

We assessed the impact of HIV-1 on malaria in the sub-Saharan African population. Relative risks for malaria in HIV-infected persons, derived from literature review, were applied to the HIV-infected population in each country, by age group, stratum of CD4 cell count, and urban versus rural residence. Distributions of CD4 counts among HIV-infected persons were modeled assuming a linear decline in CD4 after seroconversion. Averaged across 41 countries, the impact of HIV-1 was limited (although quantitatively uncertain) because of the different geographic distributions and contrasting age patterns of the 2 diseases. However, in Botswana, Zimbabwe, Swaziland, South Africa, and Namibia, the incidence of clinical malaria increased by <28% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14%–47%) and death increased by <114% (95% CI 37%–188%). These effects were due to high HIV-1 prevalence in rural areas and the locally unstable nature of malaria transmission that results in a high proportion of adult cases.