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Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis

BACKGROUND: The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily...

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Autores principales: Tobias, Aurelio, Armstrong, Ben, Zuza, Ines, Gasparrini, Antonio, Linares, Cristina, Diaz, Julio
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2012
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3314548/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22340020
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-133
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author Tobias, Aurelio
Armstrong, Ben
Zuza, Ines
Gasparrini, Antonio
Linares, Cristina
Diaz, Julio
author_facet Tobias, Aurelio
Armstrong, Ben
Zuza, Ines
Gasparrini, Antonio
Linares, Cristina
Diaz, Julio
author_sort Tobias, Aurelio
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. METHODS: Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September) for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR) of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. RESULTS: The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.19-1.30]). Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I(2 )= 54.9%). Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds
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spelling pubmed-33145482012-03-29 Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis Tobias, Aurelio Armstrong, Ben Zuza, Ines Gasparrini, Antonio Linares, Cristina Diaz, Julio BMC Public Health Research Article BACKGROUND: The 2003 heat wave had a high impact on mortality in Europe, which made necessary to develop heat health watch warning systems. In Spain this was carried-out by the Ministry of Health in 2004, being based on exceeding of city-specific simultaneous thresholds of minimum and maximum daily temperatures. The aim of this study is to assess effectiveness of the official thresholds established by the Ministry of Health for each provincial capital city, by quantifying and comparing the short-term effects of above-threshold days on total daily mortality. METHODS: Total daily mortality and minimum and maximum temperatures for the 52 capitals of province in Spain were collected during summer months (June to September) for the study period 1995-2004. Data was analysed using GEE for Poisson regression. Relative Risk (RR) of total daily mortality was quantified for the current day of official thresholds exceeded. RESULTS: The number of days in which the thresholds were exceeded show great inconsistency, with provinces with great number of exceeded days adjacent to provinces that did not exceed or rarely exceeded. The average overall excess risk of dying during an extreme heat day was about 25% (RR = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) = [1.19-1.30]). Relative risks showed a significant heterogeneity between cities (I(2 )= 54.9%). Western situation and low mean summer temperatures were associated with higher relative risks, suggesting thresholds may have been set too high in these areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study confirmed that extreme heat days have a considerable impact on total daily mortality in Spain. Official thresholds gave consistent relative risk in the large capital cities. However, in some other cities thresholds BioMed Central 2012-02-17 /pmc/articles/PMC3314548/ /pubmed/22340020 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-133 Text en Copyright ©2012 Tobias et al; BioMed Central Ltd. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0 This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Tobias, Aurelio
Armstrong, Ben
Zuza, Ines
Gasparrini, Antonio
Linares, Cristina
Diaz, Julio
Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title_full Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title_fullStr Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title_full_unstemmed Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title_short Mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in Spain: a multi-city time series analysis
title_sort mortality on extreme heat days using official thresholds in spain: a multi-city time series analysis
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3314548/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22340020
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/1471-2458-12-133
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